Fighting started in late 2014, after Huthi rebels expelled the internationally recognised government from the capital.

Elsewhere, leaders anticipating impunity have been taken aback by the severity of the response: Russian President Vladimir Putin, for example, by the stiff sanctions and show of united resolve that Western powers have maintained since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and the killing of its former agent on British soil; Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by the outrage that followed Khashoggi’s murder.

This would also likely result in Iran assuming an increased role in the area, which is a key piece of its “land bridge” to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The victory in Derna was especially notable as the city was the last urban Islamist stronghold within the country. It insists Kyiv should negotiate Donbas’ self-rule with separatist leaders.

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filter, Apply filter, Conflict-hit Nigerian families living under COVID-19 lockdowns, on ‘life-support’, As north-west Syria violence reaches ‘horrifying’ new level, UN relief chief says ceasefire is only option, $683 million appeal to deliver reproductive health services, where they’re most needed, Refugee children excluded from education will never be equipped to rebuild their countries: UNHCR, Humanitarian assistance to be scaled-up for millions of Venezuelans in need, Ripple effect of sexual violence in conflict threatens ‘collective security’, stains ‘our common humanity’, says UN chief. A collapse of the government’s fragile deal with the STC in the south or of its equally vulnerable agreement with the Huthis along the Red Sea coast would upend peacemaking efforts. The crisis is having other ripple effects. His core research interests are democratization and political violence in Southeast Asia. 19 June 2019 Human Rights Sexual violence in conflict is a “threat to our collective security” and a “stain on our common humanity”, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in his message commemorating the International Day for the Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict, on Wednesday. People regularly take to the streets in strikes over working conditions or protests over the government’s failure to tackle rising insecurity. While the overall number of political violence events declined in the Philippines in 2018, high levels of state repression and the government’s lethal anti-drug campaign made it one of the deadliest countries for civilians in the world. Non-state conflicts and related deaths are declining: In 2019 there were a total of 67 non-state conflicts in the world. The lull in violent conflict in the second half of 2019, in other words, should not be mistaken for a new normal. The country appears close to collapse, yet elites focus on internecine power struggles. Heightening the sense of lawlessness is Beijing’s unjust detention of three Canadians – including one of my colleagues, the North East Asia expert Michael Kovrig – widely seen as a tit for tat for Canada’s arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, wanted for Iran sanctions violations by the U.S., with which Canada has an extradition treaty. It is not too late to try. As Kyiv sees it, the attack on Ukrainian military ships and seizure of two dozen sailors is the culmination of months of Russian attempts to squeeze Ukrainian boats out of those waters, violating a 2003 bilateral treaty that guarantees both countries free shipping.

The YPG could now face an attack from Turkey (which considers it a terrorist organisation due to its affiliation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK) or by the Assad regime (which aims to reassert control over the entirety of the country, including the oil-rich north east). This is potentially an indicator of how severe recent conflicts have become. Myanmar continued to experience significant ethnic armed conflict across the country in 2018. Mounting U.S.-Chinese tension has implications for conflicts in Asia and beyond. With the drawdown of the AU-UN peacekeeping mission in the region, the violence may be driven by groups competing for dominance in the new environment.

Elsewhere, its game is a long one. The July 2018 Basrah demonstrations occurred just months after the May parliamentary elections, which many thought would lead to improvements in governance and quality of life. In late December 2018, a Duterte-allied congressman running for mayor in Daraga in the upcoming elections was killed in an assassination allegedly orchestrated by the incumbent mayor (The New York Times, 3 January 2018). In reality, the U.S. has no better option than pursuing a deal with the Taliban. In early December, Pyongyang went further, testing what appeared to be the engine for either a space-launch vehicle or a long-range missile and related technology, at a site that Trump claimed Kim had promised to dismantle. Protesters have learned lessons, settling in for the long haul and, for the most part, avoiding violence that plays in the hands of those they contest. Russia, in contrast, displays the impatience of a nation grateful for the power these unusual circumstances have brought and eager to assert it before time runs out. This would be an acceptable price for Venezuela’s peace and stability, and to avoid a far worse calamity. Tehran’s shift from a policy of maximum patience to one of maximum resistance was a consequence of the U.S. playing one of the aces in its coercive deck: ending already-limited exemptions on Iran’s oil sales. Defusing the crisis will first require confidence-building measures. The loss of resources and ongoing tensions, aggravated by the Kurdish referendum in September 2017, led to austerity measures and subsequent unrest throughout the region. It chooses its battles, focusing on self-identified priorities: domestic control and suppression of potential dissent (as in Hong Kong, or the mass detention of Muslims in Xinjiang); the South and East China Seas; the brewing technological tug of war with the U.S., of my own colleague Michael Kovrig – unjustly detained in China for over a year – has become collateral damage. But there is still a negotiated way out of the turmoil. Who are the UAE-Backed Forces Fighting on the Western Front in Yemen? Further reading: Gold exports and cash dollars kept the country afloat and enriched a tiny elite. ACLED Methodology and Coding Decisions around the Philippines Drug War. Héni Nsaibia is a Senior Researcher at ACLED. That and more will be needed to end the Yemen war or at least avoid it taking another turn for the worse. The latest flash point is the Sea of Azov, where in November Russian and Ukrainian vessels clashed and Russia effectively blocked access to the Kerch Strait, at the mouth of the sea. While both groups currently possess limited operational capacities in the country, AQAP controlled large swathes of territory in several provinces — including Mukalla, Yemen’s fifth-largest city — between 2015 and 2016. The new policy led to soaring bread prices and a decline in availability. Any progress requires Pakistan taking credible action against jihadis operating from its soil, a non-negotiable precondition for India to even consider engaging. The Taliban, on the other hand, is deeply rooted in Afghanistan at the local-level and requires the support of the people to further its goals.

Olli Head Orga. He had invited Taliban leaders to Camp David, along with Ghani, and when the insurgents declined to come unless the agreement was signed first, Trump invoked a Taliban attack that killed a U.S. soldier as a reason to nix the agreement his envoy had inked. The proliferation of actors also stymies efforts to end the bloodshed. These grave violations include the killing and maiming of children; recruitment and use of children by armed forces and armed groups; sexual violence against children; attacks against schools and hospitals; abduction of children; and denial of humanitarian access for children. In October, however, an eight-hour meeting between envoys in Sweden went nowhere.

But for its new president at the center of that storm, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a priority is to end the conflict in that country’s east – an objective for which he appears to recognise the need for Kyiv to compromise. Pakistan has tried to rally international support against what it calls India’s illegal decision on Kashmir’s status. The standoff between China and the U.S. is not a deadly conflict, no matter how bitter the trade war between Washington and Beijing has become. Internationalized civil conflicts killed more people than “regular” civil conflicts. For the first time since the war began, Washington has prioritised reaching a deal with the insurgents. Intercommunal violence will continue to follow seasonal patterns, even as it is additionally fueled by the intensity of competition over resources and cycles of retaliation. The war in Ukraine continues to smoulder with no end in sight. If Bashir chooses the latter, it is not clear whether they will be honoured — and this uncertainty may allow the demonstrations to continue, even in the face of supposed commitments.

Many of those left out joined the mass exodus of Venezuelans, now numbering 4.5 million, who in turn funneled remittances back home to sustain their families. Events in Sudan throughout 2018 were largely variations on themes that have marked the country’s political landscape for more than a decade. 2020 could offer a rare opportunity to wind down the war. U.S. policymakers mostly regard such an arrangement as inimical to U.S. alliances and interests. A disputed presidential election this October, which President Paul Biya, aged 85 and in power for 36 years, won and in which few Anglophones voted, hardly helped. By default, the data are exported in a format where each row represents a single event, on a specific day and location, and involving distinct actors. So while this has the potential to improve the ‘first order’ conflict problems in South Sudan, it will be crucial to maintain a focus on the ‘second order’ conflicts as well. An overview of the 10 conflicts Crisis Group will be watching most closely this year. IS Underground: The Post-War Threat to Iraqi Civilians Moreover, most Western powers see New Delhi as an important partner. The result could be a more destructive stalemate or a takeover of Tripoli that could give rise to prolonged militia fighting, rather than a stable single government. Overall, though, it is hard to escape the sense that these are exceptions that prove the absence of rules.

In short, the real question for the U.S. should not have been whether to stay or go, but under what timetable and what conditions to withdraw. Others, of course, see it differently. The fact that it was not coordinated with Khalilzad meant that the envoy could not extract any concessions from the Taliban in return for such a key pledge that partially addressed their core demand. There’s another trend that warrants attention: the phenomenon of mass protests across the globe. Unless this cycle is broken, the risk of a broader confrontation will rise. Nearly ten separatist militias now battle government forces, while two organisations provide direction from abroad: the interim government of Ambazonia (the putative name of the self-proclaimed Anglophone state) and the Ambazonia Governing Council.

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